Friday, July 3, 2009
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Monday, January 19, 2009
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Economy's Worst Quarter Since 1981-82 Recession?
A raft of economic data and reports for December in the coming week will just about close the door on what will likely be the worst quarter for economic growth since the 1981-82 recession. The Commerce Dept. will tally up the full damage in it's first estimate of real gross domestic product for the fourth quarter on Jan. 30. The GDP numbers are expected to show that the brunt of the economy's weakness is now shifting from consumers to businesses.
Up to late summer, corporate cutbacks in hiring and capital spending have been relatively mild. Companies went into the recession having added conservatively to their payrolls, plant and equipment, and inventories in recent years. Now the plunge in consumer spending that began at mid-year and the new sharp round of tighter credit following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy are overwhelming those moderating influences. Companies are slashing costs to preserve what's left of their profit prospects, and those efforts are showing up in drastic reductions in payrolls and steeper cuts in capital spending.
Nowhere is this retrenchment clearer than in the manufacturing sector, as this weekâ s report on industrial production, along with two regional surveys of industrial activity, will show. Industrial production in the fourth quarter appears to have shrunk more than 9% at an annual rate, which would be the largest quarterly drop since 1980. Manufacturing is reeling under the impact of credit tightening on housing, autos, and capital goods.
The weekâ s report in retail sales is expected to reflect the continued weakness in consumer demand, even as falling global demand is hammering exports. The Institute for Supply Managementâ s index of export orders fell further in December, hitting a fresh record low.
Foreign trade is also on this weekâ s agenda, and both exports and imports are expected to
how weakness. Sagging U.S. demand is reducing imports, which will actually be a plus for GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but any fall in imports will most likely be swamped by the sudden and steep decline in exports. That means the trade gap will most likely widen, resulting in a net negative impact on GDP growth.
In addition to the state of economic activity heading into the new year, market attention will also be firmly fixed on inflation. The week offers December reports on both producer and consumer price indexes. Both are expected to post sharp declines from November, reflecting falling gasoline and other energy costs. However, the markets will be particularly interested the path of core inflation, which excludes energy and food. Some Federal Reserve officials registered concerns that inflation could fall to uncomfortably low levels in coming months that could raise fears of deflation. Plunging energy prices are expected to send overall inflation into negative territory in coming months, but any move in the core inflation rate toward zero would spark deflation worries.
Up to late summer, corporate cutbacks in hiring and capital spending have been relatively mild. Companies went into the recession having added conservatively to their payrolls, plant and equipment, and inventories in recent years. Now the plunge in consumer spending that began at mid-year and the new sharp round of tighter credit following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy are overwhelming those moderating influences. Companies are slashing costs to preserve what's left of their profit prospects, and those efforts are showing up in drastic reductions in payrolls and steeper cuts in capital spending.
Nowhere is this retrenchment clearer than in the manufacturing sector, as this weekâ s report on industrial production, along with two regional surveys of industrial activity, will show. Industrial production in the fourth quarter appears to have shrunk more than 9% at an annual rate, which would be the largest quarterly drop since 1980. Manufacturing is reeling under the impact of credit tightening on housing, autos, and capital goods.
The weekâ s report in retail sales is expected to reflect the continued weakness in consumer demand, even as falling global demand is hammering exports. The Institute for Supply Managementâ s index of export orders fell further in December, hitting a fresh record low.
Foreign trade is also on this weekâ s agenda, and both exports and imports are expected to
how weakness. Sagging U.S. demand is reducing imports, which will actually be a plus for GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but any fall in imports will most likely be swamped by the sudden and steep decline in exports. That means the trade gap will most likely widen, resulting in a net negative impact on GDP growth.
In addition to the state of economic activity heading into the new year, market attention will also be firmly fixed on inflation. The week offers December reports on both producer and consumer price indexes. Both are expected to post sharp declines from November, reflecting falling gasoline and other energy costs. However, the markets will be particularly interested the path of core inflation, which excludes energy and food. Some Federal Reserve officials registered concerns that inflation could fall to uncomfortably low levels in coming months that could raise fears of deflation. Plunging energy prices are expected to send overall inflation into negative territory in coming months, but any move in the core inflation rate toward zero would spark deflation worries.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Full Details of the Search Result
Full Details of the Search Result
house prices are likely to drop by 50%. And even that will only bring them back to fair value
http://www.gusmorino.com/pag3/greatdepression/index.html
house prices are likely to drop by 50%. And even that will only bring them back to fair value
http://www.gusmorino.com/pag3/greatdepression/index.html
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Google Maps
Google Maps
82 Morse Ave
Dedham, MA 02026
The seller shouldn't pass on the cost of the remolding to the buyer in the shortterm!
82 Morse Ave
Dedham, MA 02026
The seller shouldn't pass on the cost of the remolding to the buyer in the shortterm!
"All the gold that lies beneath the moon,
Or ever did, could never give a moment's rest
To any of these worried souls."
— The Inferno; Canto VII
three "markers" to occur before he turns more bullish on the US economy:
1) The personal savings rate needs to return to the 8% level of the late 1980s and the early 1990s. Last year the savings rate even turned negative for the first time since the 1920s, as people started believing they could retire on the back of soaring asset prices. Now the reverse is happening: saving must rise again from the present 2.5%, so as to store up demand for the next bull market and period of economic expansion, reckons Rosenberg.
2) House prices have to hit bottom. For Rosenberg, this means the inventory-to-sales ratio, which "including total vacant units for sale, plus foreclosed properties", is around 17-months' supply, and should be sliced in half. All that housing stock could still take several quarters to work through.
3) The household balance sheet needs to improve sharply. The ratio of total debt to income, now at record levels, must be reduced. But specifically, the interest coverage ratio , the proportion of household income absorbed by principal and interest payments is currently at a near-record high of 14.1%. It needs to drop to 10.5%. That's the level it fell to in 1992, and 1982, in both cases providing a launch pad for multi-year bull markets and economic expansion. But remember that there's never been a recession with household debts as high as they are right now. So maybe this ratio needs to fall even further.
Perhaps that sums it all up. As Rosenberg puts it, economists base their forecasts on the past, yet we're in uncharted economic territory. New York University professor Nouriel Roubini has said that total credit write-downs in the financial system could reach $2 trillion – we've never seen anything like that before. We certainly don't know how bad the fallout might be on the US economy. That all makes end-recession estimates very open-ended.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Friday, January 4, 2008
Chatham lookout
The nature of Life and its processes lies for ever outside the ken of the physicist and his instruments.
first light
Is reincarnation a fact?Do we live again?
Is there a grand cycle of Life which knows of no mortality?
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Xmas
New beginnings, renewed hope, innocence, renewal awakening,enlightenment,and illumination are gifts and powers of the Spirits of the East.Tuesday, January 1, 2008
day at the beach
You must try to understand the relation of the world to its Creator, and to understand that all that is real is of God.The master of Destiny
In the depths of quiet forest,where the place and beauty of the worldwas an ever-present witness to the majesty of God
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)